As Usual, Goonswarm Proves Us Wrong

I've gone on a couple of rants lately, bitching about the apparent intention by CCP to make highsec a safer place for carebears. Crimewatch, especially suspect flagging. Gangbang kill rights. Wardec costs. A lack of desire to balance highsec's risk versus reward.

And the mining barge and exhumer buff. Especially this.

Some of those, taken individually, are worthwhile and necessary changes. Taken as a whole, they speak to an overhaul shift in philosophy. Perhaps that shift is not much of a shift at all. Take the miner buffs, for example.

The commonly held belief, since the buff, was that ganking these ships was now so unprofitable that they'd become effectively ungankable, even when the miners fit for mining yield only. I certainly took this notion at face value. As did many in the community.

It took Goonswarm to prove us wrong as they now embark on Gallente Ice Interdiction 2.0. Whereas highsec may be a bit safer, due to changes this past year, and mining ganking as a profitable solo profession is almost no more, there are still ways to turn a profit if you gank miners on a large enough scale.

I received a private tweet from Powers on October 14th, hinting that I should check out the Oxygen Isotope market. I saw that something was going down. Volumes way up, and the price nearly doubled in a 24 hour period. But it didn't occur to me at all that Goonswarm might be ganking ice miners again.

I've been poring over the Ministry of Love killboard. (Unfortunately, I won't be linking it, since I was asked not to make the URL public. I'll leave publicizing MiniLuv's killboards to Goonswarm.)

Since October 13th, Goonswarm has destroyed 209 mining barges, exhumers, and industrial command ships (mainly Retrievers, Mackinaws, and Orcas.) Most Retriever kills require a single Catalyst. Mackinaw kills require two or three Catalysts (depending on whether the miner fits any tank whatsoever.) Orca kills are taking between nine and twelve Catalysts.

Two popular fits I'm seeing, one a Tech II fit, the other a cheaper Tech I fit.

[Tech II Gankalyst]
Magnetic Field Stabilizer II
Magnetic Field Stabilizer II
Magnetic Field Stabilizer II

J5b Phased Prototype Warp Scrambler I
Prototype Sensor Booster

Light Ion Blaster II, Void S
Light Ion Blaster II, Void S
Light Ion Blaster II, Void S
Light Ion Blaster II, Void S
Light Ion Blaster II, Void S
Light Ion Blaster II, Void S
Light Ion Blaster II, Void S
Light Ion Blaster II, Void S

Small Hybrid Burst Aerator I
Small Hybrid Collision Accelerator I

This Tech II puppy costs approximately 7.5M ISK.

[Tech I Gankalyst]
Linear Flux Stabilizer I
Linear Flux Stabilizer I
Magnetic Field Stabilizer II

J5b Phased Prototype Warp Scrambler I

Anode Light Neutron Particle Cannon I, Caldari Navy Antimatter S
Anode Light Neutron Particle Cannon I, Caldari Navy Antimatter S
Anode Light Neutron Particle Cannon I, Caldari Navy Antimatter S
Anode Light Neutron Particle Cannon I, Caldari Navy Antimatter S
Anode Light Neutron Particle Cannon I, Caldari Navy Antimatter S
Anode Light Neutron Particle Cannon I, Caldari Navy Antimatter S
Anode Light Neutron Particle Cannon I, Caldari Navy Antimatter S
Anode Light Neutron Particle Cannon I, Caldari Navy Antimatter S

Small Hybrid Burst Aerator I
Small Hybrid Collision Accelerator I

This fit runs about 2.7M ISK.

The average module drop off a Mackinaw is about 3M ISK, plus a 75% chance at a 20M ISK armor plate if you salvage. Considering it takes between 7M and 20M ISK worth of Catalysts to gank a Mackinaw, profiting on the gank alone is now slim to none.

(Hey CCP, release some faction/deadspace mining lasers, harvesters and upgrades. Give the yield miners an opportunity to bling out their ships. Bring back miner ganking for profit to some small degree.)

Check out the Oxygen Isotope market. Look at the volumes the last five days. This is how you profit. Not through ganking, but through destabilizing the market, which the ganking encourages. It requires a massive effort though, one that Goonswarm is readily capable of. No 100-person alliance is going to be able to accomplish this.

The oxytope volumes do speak further to Goonswarm's motivations here. Those volumes aren't so outrageous that Goonswarm is in total control of the market, or that they were even interested in taking control. There won't be profits in the hundreds of billions. I think the current miner ganking is more of a trial run, to see if an Interdiction 2.0 can be feasible. Consider 2.0 a beta test. Make some profit, cover the costs of the exercise, but it doesn't appear Goonswarm's gone all-in on this little endeavour. I think it's mostly for the shits-and-giggles, and to prove to themselves that if they want to do Ice Interdictions in the future, turn massive profits, the ability to do so is well within their reach. I'd expect to see more of this in 2013, on a grander scale.